When it comes to sports stars delivering on big occasions, there is no bigger confidence boost than knowing that what
you need to produce is exactly what you have done plenty of times before.
So when it comes to working out who holds the best hand for this weekend’s Formula 1 title decider in Abu Dhabi, one of
the best indicators is what we have already seen this season.
If a driver’s hope rests on a result and a set of circumstances to fall into place that have not happened before, then
the chances of it happening are slim.
Equally, if there have been a set of results this season that have repeatedly played out in favour of one driver, then
that points to this being a more likely outcome.
So looking back over the 2025 campaign, based on the title permutations of what Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar
Piastri need to do, we can make a call of who has most frequently done the job that needs to happen one more time.
And this is a record that will give Norris both some comfort and a bit of alarm.
Based on the points permutations that are required for each driver to win the title, things comprehensively favour
Out of the 23 races we had so far, there are 18 races where, if repeated, he would win the title.
They are: Australia, China, Japan, Bahrain, Saudi, Miami, Imola, Monaco, Spain, Austria, Britain, Belgium, Hungary,
Italy, Singapore, Austin, Mexico, and Brazil.
From Verstappen’s side, there have been four times this season where the results have played out in a way that would
make him champion. They are: Canada, Baku, Las Vegas, and Qatar.
And for Piastri, there is just one race where, if repeated, he would have ended up as the title winner – the Dutch GP.
This on paper looks good for Norris, but there will be some slight alarm at the fact that two of the four events where
he would have lost the title have happened in the last two weekends. That’s not good from a trend point of view.
And of course, this title-deciding weekend carries with it a unique pressure for Norris, like none of the other 23
Looking back and using history to try to make a firm prediction of how events will play out is a dangerous game though –
especially because championship deciders throw curveballs and have extra pressures that do not exist at races earlier in
This is especially true in a three-way title showdown where the situation can move around quite a lot and drivers are
more exposed to elements that are outside of their control.
A three-way shoot out is not common in F1, and there have only been two occasions in the past 20 years when it's
Lessons from those events do not bode well for Norris, though, because on each occasion it was the driver in third place
In 2007, Kimi Raikkonen grabbed the championship at the Brazilian Grand Prix despite having gone into the finale seven
points adrift of Lewis Hamilton and three behind Fernando Alonso. (It was 10 points for a win in those days).
Based on the same calculations of how many prior results from the previous 16 events would have given them the
championship, Hamilton had done enough 14 times, Alonso had done it twice – and Raikkonen not at all!
In 2010, it was a four-way title showdown involving Fernando Alonso (246), Mark Webber (238), Sebastian Vettel (231) and
In the end, it was again the third positioned driver who triumphed, even though that went completely against the grain
In the 18 races before the last race in Abu Dhabi, Fernando Alonso seemed to hold the cards , having done enough in 11
out of the 18 races that had taken place before the finale in Abu Dhabi.
Webber had done it five times, while there had been just two occasions where Vettel’s results were what he needed to be
This all proves that finales throw up the unexpected, even when all that is required of the protagonists is to do
exactly what they have done many times before.