The ongoing conflict in Yemen, already a complex tapestry of regional and international interests, is facing a new
inflection point. Saudi Arabia's recent public call for the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council
(STC) to withdraw its forces from the Hadramout and Mahra governorates highlights a growing divergence within the
anti-Houthi coalition, and this could have significant ramifications for the stability of the Red Sea and global trade
routes. The delicate balance of power in the region is being tested, and the potential for further fragmentation within
Yemen presents a clear and present danger.
The conflict in Yemen is not simply a civil war; it is a proxy war, reflecting a complex web of competing interests,
ambitions, and strategic calculations. Saudi Arabia, leading a coalition in support of the internationally recognized
Yemeni government, has found itself increasingly at odds with the UAE, which, while nominally part of the same
coalition, has pursued its own objectives, primarily through its support for the STC. The STC, advocating for an
independent South Yemen, controls significant territory and wields considerable influence, particularly in Aden, the
interim capital. This tension between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, though often subtle, is becoming more pronounced, driven by
differing visions for Yemen's future and broader regional strategic goals.
The Saudi demand for the STC withdrawal is significant because it directly challenges the UAE's influence in Yemen.
While both nations share a common goal of countering Houthi power, their methods and long-term objectives diverge. The
Saudis prioritize a unified Yemen under a government aligned with their interests, while the UAE seems more comfortable
with a fragmented Yemen, where they can exert influence through proxies like the STC. This divergence is not unique to
Yemen; similar dynamics are playing out in other regional hotspots, such as Sudan, where Saudi and Emirati backing for
opposing factions has exacerbated the ongoing conflict. Such instances highlight the growing competition between the two
Gulf powers for regional dominance and influence. For background on regional competition, consider reading this world
The implications of this intra-coalition friction are far-reaching. A weakened anti-Houthi front could embolden the
Houthis, potentially leading to further territorial gains and increased attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. This, in
turn, would further disrupt global trade flows, already significantly impacted by the Houthi's ongoing attacks in
support of Hamas. The potential for increased instability in Yemen also raises concerns about the resurgence of
terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which have historically exploited the power vacuum
created by the conflict. The humanitarian crisis, already one of the worst in the world, could also worsen, with
millions facing starvation and displacement.
Furthermore, the Saudi-UAE tension adds another layer of complexity to the diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the
conflict. UN-led peace initiatives have repeatedly stalled, hampered by the intransigence of the warring parties and the
competing interests of regional actors. The fracturing of the anti-Houthi coalition makes finding a durable political
solution even more challenging. Any future peace agreement would need to address the STC's demands for greater autonomy
or even independence, a scenario that Saudi Arabia is likely to resist. The success of any negotiations will also depend
on the willingness of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reconcile their differences and adopt a unified approach. For an
overview of the topic basics, this article can help.
The United States, which has historically supported the Saudi-led coalition, faces a difficult balancing act. While
Washington shares concerns about Houthi aggression and Iranian influence in Yemen, it also seeks to de-escalate the
conflict and promote a political solution. The US must navigate the complex relationship between Saudi Arabia and the
UAE, using its leverage to encourage cooperation and prevent further fragmentation within the anti-Houthi camp. If
global trade continues to be affected, India's global position as an emerging economic power may also be affected.
The situation in Yemen remains fluid and unpredictable. The Saudi call for the STC withdrawal is a high-stakes gamble
that could either pave the way for a more unified anti-Houthi front or trigger a new phase of conflict. The coming weeks
and months will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the war and the stability of the Red Sea region. The
international community must remain engaged and redouble its efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict,
one that addresses the legitimate concerns of all Yemeni stakeholders and safeguards the interests of regional and