Despite a week characterized by considerable market turbulence, indices representing the broader Indian market,
specifically the BSE Midcap and Smallcap, demonstrated stronger performance than the primary indices. This period saw
notable fluctuations driven by persistent selling activity from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), a record
depreciation of the rupee reaching over 91 against the US dollar, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations
between the US and India.
The BSE Sensex experienced a decline of 338.3 points, equivalent to a 0.39 percent decrease, settling at 84,929.36.
Similarly, the Nifty50 index fell by 80.55 points, or 0.30 percent, closing at 25,966.40.
Examining sector-specific performance, the Nifty Private Bank and Media indices each experienced a 1 percent reduction.
The Nifty Auto, Nifty India Defence, and Nifty Bank indices each saw declines of 0.5 percent. Conversely, the Nifty PSU
Bank and IT indices both gained 1 percent, while the Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables indices each rose by 0.5
While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) became net buyers during the final three sessions of the week, their
overall activity resulted in net sales of equities amounting to Rs 251.86 crore. This is significantly less than the
previous week's sales of Rs 9,201.89 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) sustained their buying
trend, acquiring equities valued at Rs 12,061.92 crore during the week.
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, "Indian equities traded cautiously for most of the
week, influenced by continuous FII outflows, the rupee's fall to new lows, and global uncertainties. Initial trading
sessions were impacted by rising Japanese bond yields and expectations of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, which
intensified risk aversion across emerging markets."
Nair added, "Domestic benchmarks remained range-bound with a negative undertone, even with support from the RBI’s
efforts to stabilize the currency and optimism regarding earnings recovery in the second half of fiscal year 2026.
Sentiment improved on Friday following softer-than-expected US CPI data, raising hopes for a less aggressive stance from
the Federal Reserve. Bargain hunting and lower crude prices aided large caps in a late recovery, reducing the week’s
Looking ahead, Nair suggests, "Markets are expected to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook but will likely remain
sensitive to global signals. Key factors influencing market direction will include commentary from global central banks
regarding the policy trajectory for 2026. While the general mood is positive, near-term volatility could persist due to
uncertainties surrounding trade deal timelines and INR stability."
Within the BSE Small-cap index, performance varied widely. Several stocks experienced significant declines, including
Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment & Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu,
Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, and Gallantt Ispat, which fell between 12 and 22 percent.
Conversely, other stocks saw substantial gains. These included Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, Lloyds Enterprises,
Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, and DCX Systems, all of which
increased by more than 15 percent.
Technical analysts offer insights into the potential future direction of the Nifty50:
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that "After fluctuating between converging
trend lines, the market has begun to break out of the triangle pattern in the short term.
The underlying trend for Nifty remains positive. A sustained move above the critical resistance zone of 26000-26050
could lead to an upward target of around 26300 in the near future. Key support levels to monitor are 25800-25700."
Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities, believes that "the current market structure is range-bound.
For bullish investors, 26,000/85000 will serve as an immediate breakout area. Successfully trading above this level
could trigger a rally towards 26,200/85600. Further gains may extend, potentially pushing the index to
26,300–26,350/85900-86100. Conversely, 25,850/84500 will act as a crucial support zone. Breaching this level could lead
the market to retest 25,700–25,600/84000-83700."
Athawale added, "For Bank Nifty, the significant support zones lie at 58,700 and the 50-day SMA, around 58,470. As long
as trading remains above these levels, a bullish outlook is likely to persist. On the upside, 59,700–60,000 could
present immediate resistance for traders. However, a drop below the 50-day SMA, or 58,470, would jeopardize the
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates, stated that
"Technically, the Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart and defended the 50-DEMA support at 25,775, along
with the swing low of 25,690—indicating some relief for bulls. The primary support zone lies between 25,690 and 25,775,
while resistance is positioned at 26,100. A decisive break above 26,100 could pave the way towards 26,250–26,300.
Overall, the index is expected to consolidate within the 25,700-26,300 range in the short term."
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, observed that "The Nifty has broken out from a falling wedge
pattern, signaling improved market sentiment. Furthermore, the index has reclaimed the 21-day EMA on the daily chart.
After finding support near the 50-day EMA, the index has rebounded towards the 26,000 level."
De concludes, "Looking ahead, 26,000 will be a crucial level to monitor; a confirmed move above this level could drive
the index towards 26,300. On the downside, immediate support is located at 25,900, which is expected to serve as the
initial defense line for the Nifty."