What it would really take to stop Putin fighting in Ukraine

Stopping Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine is a complex challenge, involving a mix of factors that could influence the Russian president's calculations. Despite his reputation as a shrewd operator, Putin's confidence and intentions are often visible, as noted by the late Senator John McCain, who famously quipped about seeing the KGB in Putin's eyes.

Currently, Putin seems to believe that the situation is shifting in his favor, citing improved relations with the U.S. and battlefield gains. Some analysts suggest he feels no pressure to concede his demands, which include Ukraine relinquishing control of the remaining 20% of Donetsk, international recognition of Russian-occupied territories, a severely limited Ukrainian army, and a permanent ban on Ukraine's NATO membership.

Scenarios and Potential Shifts

Several scenarios could play out. One involves U.S. President Donald Trump potentially pushing Ukraine into a ceasefire on terms that are unfavorable, such as ceding territory without solid security guarantees. Trump has also suggested he might withdraw U.S. support, which includes crucial intelligence for detecting Russian drones and targeting energy facilities, if Ukraine resists or Russia objects.

The war could also continue with Russia making gradual advances in the east. The U.S. has signaled a potential shift in its approach, with its national security strategy suggesting Russia is no longer an "existential threat," and advocating for "strategic stability" with Russia. Given the uncertainty surrounding U.S. support, the question remains: what could realistically change Putin's calculus, and what actions could Ukraine, Europe, or even China take?

Europe's Role

Currently, Europe is preparing for a possible ceasefire, organizing a military force under a "coalition of the willing" to deter future Russian aggression, alongside financial aid for Ukraine's reconstruction. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. some officials argue Europe should brace for a prolonged conflict, offering sustained support to help Ukraine "win the fight tonight" and preparing for a 15-20 year war with Russia.

Enhancing Ukraine's air defenses is another area where Europe could contribute. The European Sky Shield Initiative could be expanded to protect western Ukraine. Deploying European troops to patrol Ukraine's western borders, freeing up Ukrainian soldiers for the front lines, has been suggested, though mostly rejected due to fears of escalating the conflict with Russia.

Keir Giles from Chatham House argues these fears are unfounded, as Western troops are already present, and deploying Sky Shield in western Ukraine carries minimal risk of clashes with Russian aircraft. He believes European leaders need to actively "insert themselves into the conflict in a manner that will actually make a difference," asserting that a strong Western military presence in areas Russia targets is the only way to deter Russian aggression.

This strategy faces political hurdles, as some voters in Western Europe are hesitant to risk confrontation with Russia. Few anticipate Ukraine regaining lost territory.

Russia's Miscalculations and Ukraine's Strength

Some Western diplomats claim that Russian generals are misleading Putin, exaggerating battlefield successes to push Ukraine towards seeking peace. Despite this, Russia has only gained 1% of Ukrainian territory this year, at a cost of over 200,000 casualties, according to Thomas Graham in Foreign Affairs.

Fiona Hill from the Brookings Institution highlights a key advantage for Putin: the perception that Ukraine is losing. She argues that Ukraine, with the most potent military in Europe, has achieved remarkable feats in holding off Russia, even while constrained.

Economic Pressure and Sanctions

Sanctions are impacting Russia's economy, with inflation at 8%, interest rates at 16%, slowed growth, rising budget deficits, falling incomes, and increasing consumer taxes. A report by the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform suggests Russia's war economy is running out of resources, being significantly less capable of financing the war than in 2022.

That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. these economic pressures have yet to significantly alter Kremlin policy, as businesses find ways to circumvent restrictions, such as using unregistered ships to transport oil. Tom Keatinge from RUSI criticizes the convoluted messaging and loopholes in Western sanctions. He suggests Russia will bypass recent U.S. sanctions on oil giants like Lukoil and Rosneft by relabeling oil exports.

Keatinge advocates for a full embargo on Russian oil and strict enforcement of secondary sanctions on countries that continue to purchase it, emphasizing the need to take sanctions implementation as seriously as the Kremlin takes circumvention.

Sanctions could also influence Russian public opinion. A survey indicated that 56% of Russians feel "very tired" of the conflict, up from 47% the previous year. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. most Kremlinologists believe the Russian public largely supports Putin's strategy.

Financial Aid and Frozen Assets

The EU is considering using approximately €200 billion in frozen Russian assets to create a "reparation loan" for Ukraine, with the European Commission proposing to raise €90 billion over two years. Kyiv is already counting on these funds, but the EU remains hesitant.

Belgium, where most of the assets are held, fears legal action from Russia, and the Russian Central Bank has already initiated legal proceedings against Euroclear in Moscow. Belgium seeks explicit risk-sharing with other EU members before agreeing to the loan. France also has reservations due to its own debt and concerns that exploiting the assets could destabilize the eurozone. EU leaders will attempt to reach an agreement at their upcoming summit, but success is not guaranteed.

Disagreement also exists regarding the use of the funds: whether to maintain Ukraine's solvency or to finance post-war reconstruction.

Ukraine's Mobilization and Military Strategy

Ukraine could mobilize more of its armed forces. Despite having the second-largest army in Europe and being technically advanced, it struggles to defend an 800-mile front line. Exhaustion and desertion rates are increasing after nearly four years of war, and recruitment is becoming more challenging. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. Ukraine could broaden its conscription laws.

Currently, only men aged 25 to 60 are eligible for conscription, a deliberate strategy to address Ukraine's demographic challenges. This approach puzzles some, with a senior UK military figure questioning why Ukraine hasn't mobilized its younger population, given the existential threat it faces. Fiona Hill explains that Ukraine is prioritizing its demographic future, learning from the devastating impact of World War One on European empires.

Strikes, Diplomacy, and China's Role

Increasing the import and production of long-range missiles would enable Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. Ukraine has intensified its strikes on targets in occupied territory and the Russian Federation, hitting over 50 fuel and military-industrial facilities this autumn. These strikes have caused fuel shortages in some Russian regions.

That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. the impact of deeper strikes is uncertain, given the apparent indifference of the Kremlin and Russian public opinion. Mick Ryan from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautions that deep strikes alone are insufficient to force Putin to negotiate or win the war. Sidharth Kaushal from RUSI warns that while such strikes could damage Russia's infrastructure and deplete its air defenses, they could also reinforce the Russian narrative that an independent Ukraine poses a significant threat.

Diplomacy remains a potential path. Some analysts suggest that offering Putin a way out of the war could be effective, such as a ceasefire along the line of contact, demilitarized zones, and no formal territorial recognition. This would require strong U.S. engagement with Russia, establishing negotiating teams and using its influence to broker an agreement.

China's role is also critical. President Xi Jinping is among the few world leaders Putin respects. China's warning against nuclear threats earlier in the conflict was swiftly heeded by the Kremlin. Russia's war machine relies heavily on China's supply of dual-use goods. If Beijing decided the war was no longer in its interests, it could exert significant leverage over Kremlin thinking.

Currently, the U.S. shows no inclination to encourage China to pressure Moscow. The question is whether President Xi would act independently. China appears content with the U.S. being distracted, transatlantic allies being divided, and China being viewed as a source of stability. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. if the conflict escalates, global markets are disrupted, or the U.S. imposes secondary sanctions on China for its consumption of cheap Russian energy, Beijing's calculus might change.

For now, Putin seems confident, believing time is on his side. The longer the conflict continues, the more Ukrainian morale may decline, its allies may become divided, and Russia may gain more territory. Putin has stated that he intends to either liberate the territories by force or have Ukrainian troops withdraw. Fiona Hill concludes that Putin is betting he can sustain the conflict long enough for circumstances to favor him, unless he is removed from power.