Weak Spots Are Few for Russia in Ukraine Peace Talks
Economic and military pressures could force Russia’s hand. Its economy is strained but not enough to do that, analysts say. And President Vladimir V. Putin says Russia is winning the war.
After nearly five hours of talks on Tuesday between U.S. and Russian negotiators about ending the war in Ukraine, no breakthroughs emerged.
According to a Russian negotiator, President Vladimir V. Putin was critical of the proposals. Before the talks, the Russian leader even said he was willing to wage war against Ukraine’s European allies, which have been supporting it financially and militarily.
“We are not planning to fight with Europe, but if Europe suddenly starts a war with us, we are ready, ” Mr. Putin said.
So what could force Russia to end the conflict? Absent pressure like stronger sanctions, it comes down to the economy and the battlefield, analysts say. While Russia faces challenges, neither situation is dire enough to give the United States significant leverage in the talks, President Trump’s third effort to broker peace.
“There are points where Putin’s probably feeling under pressure, but none of them have reached any kind of juncture that he feels he has to make a decision or has run out of options,” said Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who ran Russian and European affairs at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration.
Before the talks, Mr. Putin stressed that Russia had the economy and the armed forces it needed to continue fighting. On Wednesday, Yuri Ushakov, the foreign policy aide who participated in the meeting, doubled down on the idea of military strength, saying recent battlefield successes “positively impacted” the course of the discussions. Russian soldiers, through their military exploits, were facilitating a peaceful resolution, he said.
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