US Wargames Explored Scenarios for Maduro's Fall, and Venezuela Always Lost

What might happen if Nicolás Maduro were removed from power in Venezuela? Six years ago, the U.S. government ran war games to explore potential answers to that question, focusing on three distinct scenarios:

• A massive popular revolt ousts Maduro, but the Venezuelan military violently suppresses the uprising.
• A palace coup forces Maduro into exile, triggering a bloody power struggle within his regime.
• A U.S. “decapitation” strike assassinates Maduro or a key ally, leading to foreign occupation of key areas, left-wing insurgency in mineral-rich regions, and loyalist guerrilla attacks on oil infrastructure.

According to Douglas Farah, a Latin America expert whose national security consulting firm participated in the 2019 strategizing efforts, all three scenarios led to the same grim conclusion: “You’d have prolonged chaos … with no clear way out.”

The simulations, based on discussion and analysis, showed that each scenario would likely trigger a massive wave of refugees fleeing into Colombia and Brazil, escaping clashes between rival rebel groups, foreign forces, and loyalist troops.

Farah noted a common, yet unrealistic, hope among those grappling with the Venezuela situation: “Everyone wrestling with this issue [is] sort of hoping that you could wave a magic wand and have a new government [in Venezuela].”