US ADP Employment Change falls by 32,000 in November vs. 5,000 expected gain

Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 47,000 increase (revised from 42,000) recorded in October and came in below the market expectation of 5,000 growth. During the period, the annual pay was up 4.4%.
Assessing the report's findings, Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, stated, "Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.” “And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” she added.
Market reaction to ADP Employment Change data
The US Dollar stays under pressure following the weak employment data. At the time of press, the USD Index (DXY) is down 0.45% on the day to 98.90.
This section below was published as a preview of the ADP Employment Change data at 11:13 GMT.
The United States (US) Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data for November is due for release today at 13:15 GMT.
Investors will pay close attention to the US ADP Employment Change data as it will indicate the current status of labor demand in the private sector. The agency is expected to show that private employers hired 5K fresh workers, significantly lower than 42K in October.
Signs of weakening US job market conditions would prompt expectations of another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.
However, better-than-projected ADP Employment Change figures are unlikely to pose a significant drag on Fed dovish expectations, as one-time upbeat numbers would be insufficient to ease policymakers' concerns about the labor market's health.
How could US ADP Employment Change affect EUR/USD?
EUR/USD trades 0.3% higher to near 1.1663 ahead of the US ADP Employment Change data release during the European trading session. The pair stays above the upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1591, indicating a strong uptrend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (bullish) shows firm momentum without overbought conditions.
With the breakout of an inverse Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern in place, the neckline around 1.1600 should act a support now. On the upside, the October 17 high near 1.1728 would act as key resistance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)