Ukraine strikes Russian submarine with 'Sub Sea Baby' drone

A Russian Improved Kilo-class submarine was reportedly struck at the Novorossiysk naval base on December 15th in an operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Naval Forces. According to the SBU, the attack involved the use of a “Sub Sea Baby” drone.

The SBU released video footage that appears to show the drone impacting the stern of the submarine, which was docked within the naval base's submarine pen. While independent verification of whether the submarine was sunk is pending, the video shows a significant explosion at the submarine's rear. This suggests potentially extensive damage to the hull, propulsion systems, and dive planes. Even if the submarine remains afloat, the damage could render it inoperable for a considerable time. The Russian Ministry of Defense, however, claims the attack failed and caused no damage to any vessels.

Ukraine's New 'Sub Sea Baby' Drone

The “Sub Sea Baby” is reportedly a new type of unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). It is likely a development of the Sea Baby unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) that Ukraine has successfully used against Russian surface ships. The drone likely functions as an autonomous torpedo. It can probably be guided to a target area using waypoints, after which its internal systems guide it autonomously. This could explain how it navigated the confined spaces within the naval base to reach the submarine pen.

It remains unclear whether the drone operates entirely independently after launch or if real-time guidance is still possible. The SBU's video, seemingly from a harbor camera, suggests Ukrainian intelligence may have hacked into these cameras to monitor Russian naval activity. The video also shows warships labeled in green boxes, possibly through AI analysis to identify vessel types. Whether this imagery was used to guide the drone in real-time is unknown.

Black Sea Maritime Conflict Intensifies

The attack on the Novorossiysk naval base signifies an escalation in maritime conflict in the Black Sea. Recent months had seen relative quiet, with mainly UAV strikes targeting Crimea and Novorossiysk, primarily focusing on energy infrastructure like oil terminals.

Ukraine has recently intensified its maritime operations, targeting vessels of Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” en route to Novorossiysk to load oil. Tankers Virat and Kiaros were struck on November 28th, followed by the tanker Dashan on December 10th. In each instance, Sea Baby USVs disabled the tankers, disrupting their voyage and Russia's oil smuggling activities.

Russia has responded by targeting commercial vessels in the port of Odessa with Geran-II drones and cruise missiles. On December 12th, the Turkish car ferry Cenk T was struck at the Chornomorsk port in Odessa. According to the ship's owner, Cenk Denizcilik, the vessel was carrying food supplies. Allegedly, two other vessels with links to Turkey, also carrying food, were damaged in subsequent strikes.

Ukraine's increased attacks on Russia's Black Sea Fleet may be retaliation for these strikes against Odessa. The SBU stated that the targeted submarine was equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, which Russia uses to strike Ukrainian infrastructure. It is unknown if the submarine was preparing to strike Ukrainian targets. Improved Kilo-class submarines can carry 4-6 Kalibr missiles.

Alternatively, Ukraine might have been acting preemptively. Despite suffering losses, Russia's Black Sea Fleet could still blockade the Ukrainian coast and intercept civilian traffic to and from Odessa. While Improved Kilo-class submarines are not suited for hailing ships, they could enforce a blockade by attacking civilian vessels.

Implications of Ukraine's Maritime Strike

The Sub Sea Baby drone's ability to bypass Novorossiysk's harbor defenses is significant. Russia has implemented protective measures against USV threats, such as floating pontoons at the naval base entrance. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. these systems are less effective against UUVs.

Until Russia deploys defenses against the new UUV threat, the Novorossiysk naval base remains vulnerable. This raises questions about how the Black Sea Fleet will respond, including potentially relocating warships to Sochi or Poti in Abkhazia. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. these harbors lack the infrastructure to support naval operations, which would reduce the Black Sea Fleet’s combat effectiveness.

With Ukrainian UUVs able to penetrate Novorossiysk's defenses, attention turns to the Kerch Bridge, which has been attacked before. A prior attack involved underwater explosives that damaged the bridge's support structures. While past attacks have not destroyed the bridge, they have disrupted traffic. Ukraine aims to sever Crimea from Russia and blockade the peninsula. While Sub Sea Baby drones could bypass existing defenses designed for USVs, it is uncertain whether they could inflict enough damage to collapse the bridge.