There aren't many balls left for JioStar to make the runs

JioStar, the International Cricket Council’s (ICC) primary broadcast partner, is anticipating further losses on its investment in ICC media rights. Sources familiar with the situation indicate that despite robust viewership and strong performances by the Indian cricket team, commercial returns from major ICC events have not met expectations.

While recent discussions between JioStar and the ICC have eased immediate concerns, the underlying economics of the $3 billion deal remain strained. The current structure is proving unsustainable, highlighting a growing gap between viewership numbers and actual commercial gains in global cricket broadcasting.

Under the four-year agreement, JioStar is expected to pay approximately $750 million in 2026, representing 25% of the total rights fee. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. the payment structure may also be event-linked, potentially exceeding $750 million for the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2026 in India. While the specific payment milestones remain unverified, industry executives report that advertising and subscription revenues from tournaments like the ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2024 and the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 fell short of internal targets, despite healthy audience numbers.

Combined ad revenue from the ICC Champions Trophy and the ICC T20 World Cup reached over ₹2,000 crore, against a target exceeding ₹4,000 crore, according to industry executives.

Currency volatility has further intensified the financial pressure. The dollar-denominated ICC rights fee exposes JioStar to foreign exchange risks, especially with the rupee weakening to over ₹91 against the dollar. Reflecting the strain on its sports portfolio, JioStar increased its provisions for expected losses on sports contracts in 2024-25 to ₹25,760 crore, a significant rise from ₹12,319 crore the previous year. A substantial portion of this provision is attributed to the ICC deal.

According to Ajimon Francis, MD of Brand Finance India, cricket demonstrates strong growth in viewership and fan engagement. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. aligning broadcaster rights fees with sustainable revenue generation remains a challenge. Unlike the IPL, the ICC calendar includes numerous matches with varying commercial appeal, which impacts monetization. JioStar's position reflects a broader effort to engage with the ICC to enhance the overall value proposition.

The pressure is expected to escalate in 2026 as the ICC Men's T20 World Cup in India and Sri Lanka coincides with a changed advertising landscape due to regulatory restrictions on fantasy gaming platforms like Dream11 and My11 Circle. These platforms have historically been major contributors to cricket advertising, and their absence is expected to significantly impact monetization during ICC tournaments. Industry executives estimate that these regulatory curbs have removed approximately ₹7,000 crore from the sports media advertising market.

Santosh N, Managing Partner at D&P Advisory, notes that JioStar will likely face revenue pressure due to the RMG ban, potentially affecting pricing, as no single category can fully compensate for the loss. Additionally, a large portion of ICC inventory comprises non-India matches, which tend to be less commercially attractive. With consolidation complete, the combined entity may seek a pricing correction. The broader decline of linear television is compounding this challenge. GroupM estimates that sports media spending in 2024 was ₹7,989 crore, a 7% year-on-year increase. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. television advertising revenues decreased by 5% to ₹4,396 crore, while digital advertising surged by 25% to ₹3,588 crore.

Subscriber churn in the pay-TV ecosystem is adding further strain. A Crisil report analyzing private DTH operators, covering approximately 53 million subscribers as of September 30, 2025, indicates a sustained decline as affluent users migrate to OTT platforms and price-sensitive consumers shift to DD Free Dish. The private DTH subscriber base has decreased from 72 million in FY19 to 62 million in FY24 and is projected to fall below 51 million in FY26.

Against this backdrop, senior leaders at both the ICC and JioStar are considering restructuring options to ease annual cash flow pressure while maintaining the ICC's long-term revenue visibility. One proposal involves extending the current rights cycle by two years to 2029 without increasing the overall rights fee. Another option is adding an extra tournament within the existing cycle to boost inventory and improve monetization potential. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. legal experts caution that such a move could expose the ICC to legal risks, potentially interpreted as altering contract terms to which other bidders had agreed. Both the ICC and JioStar have declined to comment on these discussions.

Despite earlier reports of JioStar exploring a potential exit from the deal by finding a buyer for the remaining two years, both parties have reaffirmed their commitment to the existing agreement. The ICC tested the market for a fresh four-year media rights cycle at an indicative valuation of around $2.4 billion, sounding out broadcasters and digital platforms including Sony, Netflix, and Prime Video. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. none were willing to engage at the desired valuation.

With no alternative broadcaster prepared to take over and a legally sound contract in place, JioStar is expected to remain the ICC's broadcast partner. The ICC is seemingly aware that without adjustments to the deal's economics, the financial strain on its largest media rights holder could threaten the stability of their partnership.