The clues for how F1’s three-way title showdown will go

When it comes to sports stars delivering on big occasions, there is no bigger confidence boost than knowing that what you need to produce is exactly what you have done plenty of times before.
So when it comes to working out who holds the best hand for this weekend’s Formula 1 title decider in Abu Dhabi, one of the best indicators is what we have already seen this season.
If a driver’s hope rests on a result and a set of circumstances to fall into place that have not happened before, then the chances of it happening are slim.
Equally, if there have been a set of results this season that have repeatedly played out in favour of one driver, then that points to this being a more likely outcome.
So looking back over the 2025 campaign, based on the title permutations of what Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri need to do, we can make a call of who has most frequently done the job that needs to happen one more time.
And this is a record that will give Norris both some comfort and a bit of alarm.
Based on the points permutations that are required for each driver to win the title, things comprehensively favour Norris.
Out of the 23 races we had so far, there are 18 races where, if repeated, he would win the title.
They are: Australia, China, Japan, Bahrain, Saudi, Miami, Imola, Monaco, Spain, Austria, Britain, Belgium, Hungary, Italy, Singapore, Austin, Mexico, and Brazil.
From Verstappen’s side, there have been four times this season where the results have played out in a way that would make him champion. They are: Canada, Baku, Las Vegas, and Qatar.
And for Piastri, there is just one race where, if repeated, he would have ended up as the title winner – the Dutch GP.
This on paper looks good for Norris, but there will be some slight alarm at the fact that two of the four events where he would have lost the title have happened in the last two weekends. That’s not good from a trend point of view.
And of course, this title-deciding weekend carries with it a unique pressure for Norris, like none of the other 23 races.
A bigger history lesson
Looking back and using history to try to make a firm prediction of how events will play out is a dangerous game though – especially because championship deciders throw curveballs and have extra pressures that do not exist at races earlier in the campaign.
This is especially true in a three-way title showdown where the situation can move around quite a lot and drivers are more exposed to elements that are outside of their control.
A three-way shoot out is not common in F1, and there have only been two occasions in the past 20 years when it's happened.
Lessons from those events do not bode well for Norris, though, because on each occasion it was the driver in third place that came out on top.
In 2007, Kimi Raikkonen grabbed the championship at the Brazilian Grand Prix despite having gone into the finale seven points adrift of Lewis Hamilton and three behind Fernando Alonso. (It was 10 points for a win in those days).
Based on the same calculations of how many prior results from the previous 16 events would have given them the championship, Hamilton had done enough 14 times, Alonso had done it twice – and Raikkonen not at all!
In 2010, it was a four-way title showdown involving Fernando Alonso (246), Mark Webber (238), Sebastian Vettel (231) and Lewis Hamilton (222).
In the end, it was again the third positioned driver who triumphed, even though that went completely against the grain of the season.
In the 18 races before the last race in Abu Dhabi, Fernando Alonso seemed to hold the cards , having done enough in 11 out of the 18 races that had taken place before the finale in Abu Dhabi.
Webber had done it five times, while there had been just two occasions where Vettel’s results were what he needed to be champion.
This all proves that finales throw up the unexpected, even when all that is required of the protagonists is to do exactly what they have done many times before.