Nifty 50 Outlook, FPI Impact on USD/INR, and Stocks to Watch on Monday

The Indian stock market experienced gains for the second consecutive session on Friday, fueled by metal stock purchases and positive global signals that followed a 25 bps rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Despite this positive close, the week concluded with benchmark indices showing losses, attributed to substantial selling during the initial three sessions.

The BSE Sensex increased by 449.53 points, a 0.53% rise, closing at 85,267.66. Similarly, the NSE Nifty saw a surge of 148.40 points, or 0.57%, to finish at 26,046.95.

**Impact of Foreign Investment**

These gains occurred despite significant selling activity from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who withdrew ₹17,955 crore from Indian equities in the first half of the month. This brings the total outflow for 2025 to ₹1.6 lakh crore.

Market analysts suggest that the continuous outflow is due to factors such as the rupee's sharp depreciation and high valuations in the Indian market.

**Rupee Performance**

The rupee's weakness remained a concern, hitting a new low on Friday. The currency declined by 17 paise, closing at an all-time low of 90.49 against the US dollar. This depreciation is partly attributed to the absence of an India-US trade agreement and consistent foreign capital outflows.

Experts predict a continued negative trend for the rupee, as delays in the India-US trade deal could put pressure on the domestic currency.

**Market Predictions**

Aakash Shah, a Research Analyst at Choice Broking, anticipates a stable opening for the Sensex on Monday, December 15, with pre-market indicators suggesting a mildly cautious but generally steady start.

Shah noted that global cues remain mixed, which may initially dampen sentiment. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. low volatility and increased risk appetite could help the index recover quickly. He expects buying interest to gradually emerge in key cyclical sectors like metals, capital goods, and select financials, potentially supporting the broader market. He also suggests that intraday dips are likely to attract buyers, especially if heavyweight stocks maintain their momentum.

**Trading Strategy**

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, commented that the Nifty has rebounded above 26,000 after a brief period of weakness. The index closed higher on Friday, reclaiming the 21EMA. The RSI on the 4-hour chart indicates a bullish crossover, suggesting improving momentum. De believes the near-term trend will likely remain positive as long as the index stays above 25,900, which is expected to act as a key support level. He anticipates the index could move towards 26,300 in the short term.

**Stock Recommendations**

Market experts have recommended eight stocks for intraday trading. These experts include Sumeet Bagadia from Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre from Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal from Prabhudas Lilladher.

The recommended stocks are Vedanta, Ashok Leyland, Jubilant Food, ITC, TCS, Paytm, Eternal, and Waaree Energy.

• Sumeet Bagadia's Stock Picks:**
• Vedanta:** Buy at ₹543, stop loss at ₹524, target price of ₹581.
• Ashok Leyland:** Buy at ₹164, stop loss at ₹158, target price of ₹176.
• Ganesh Dongre's Stock Picks:**
• Jubilant Food:** Buy at ₹583, stop loss at ₹570, target price of ₹610.
• ITC:** Buy at ₹400, stop loss at ₹395, target price of ₹410.
• TCS:** Buy at ₹3220, stop loss at ₹3160, target price of ₹3300.
• Shiju Koothupalakkal's Stock Picks:**
• Paytm:** Target price of ₹1370, stop loss at ₹1280.
• Eternal:** Buy at ₹298, stop loss at ₹291, target price of ₹320.
• Waaree Energy:** Buy at ₹2980, stop loss at ₹2930, target price of ₹3100.

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.*