School attendance plummeted during Texas measles outbreak

A recent measles outbreak in West Texas caused a sharp decline in school attendance, with many students kept home to avoid infection, according to a new study. The increase in absences far exceeded the number of confirmed measles cases.

The Stanford University study found that absences in the Seminole Independent School District (ISD), the epicenter of the outbreak, jumped by 41% across all grade levels compared to the same period in the previous two years. This preliminary study highlights the impact of measles, a highly contagious disease, on student learning. Measles cases have been increasing in U.S. communities with low vaccination rates. Roughly two-thirds of measles cases in Texas and nationwide have been among unvaccinated children. Public health officials often exclude unvaccinated students when measles spreads.

Thomas Dee, a Stanford economist and education professor and co-author of the study, noted that the costs of absenteeism extend beyond just the sick children, affecting all students kept home as a precaution.

Measles, an airborne illness, poses a significant threat to young children. The disease was declared eradicated in the U.S. in 2000 due to the widespread use of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. exemptions to school vaccination requirements have risen in recent years, and most states fall below the 95% kindergarten vaccination rate considered necessary to prevent outbreaks.

According to state health department data, only 77% of kindergartners in Seminole ISD were vaccinated against measles in the 2024-2025 school year. The outbreak in Seminole contributed to the worst year for measles in the United States in over three decades, with 762 people sickened across Texas in seven months. The Texas Department of State Health Services reported an additional 182 potential measles cases in March 2025 among children in surrounding Gaines County, but these were excluded from the official count due to insufficient information.

**Impact on Attendance**

The study estimated 141 confirmed measles cases among Seminole district students, using state data. The increase in school absences was approximately 10 times greater than expected based solely on those students missing class.

State health officials recommend that individuals with confirmed or suspected measles remain isolated at home until four days after the rash appears. Unvaccinated or otherwise vulnerable students should be excluded from school for up to 21 days following exposure, according to state guidelines.

The study revealed that children from preschool to first grade experienced the most significant increase in absences, with a 71% rise compared to the previous two school years.

Seminole Superintendent Glen Teal stated that most student absences during the outbreak resulted from local health requirements for children potentially exposed to measles to stay home.

Texas Tech University education policy professor Jacob Kirksey, who reviewed the study but was not involved, suggested that parental concern likely played a role in absenteeism beyond mandated exclusions. He noted that news of an illness outbreak could make parents hesitant to send their children to school.

**Absenteeism in Other States**

Other states experiencing measles outbreaks, such as South Carolina, have also seen increased school absenteeism. As of Tuesday, over 165 people, including 127 students from three schools, were under a 21-day quarantine because they were unvaccinated or otherwise vulnerable. Some children have been quarantined multiple times due to new cases, according to Dr. Linda Bell, state epidemiologist for the South Carolina Department of Public Health.

Dr. Bell emphasized that vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent the disruption caused by measles to education, employment, and other aspects of community life.

Missing learning time can have long-term consequences for a child's academic success. Schools are already addressing learning loss from the COVID-19 pandemic, which also contributed to higher rates of chronic absenteeism.

Increased absenteeism also strains teachers' ability to effectively educate their students. Kirksey pointed out that most educators lack training in managing instructional pacing when a large number of students are absent.