Fractures Within the Anti-Houthi Coalition Threaten Red Sea Stability

The ongoing conflict in Yemen, already a complex tapestry of regional and international interests, is facing a new inflection point. Saudi Arabia's recent public call for the United Arab Emirates-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) to withdraw its forces from the Hadramout and Mahra governorates highlights a growing divergence within the anti-Houthi coalition, and this could have significant ramifications for the stability of the Red Sea and global trade routes. The delicate balance of power in the region is being tested, and the potential for further fragmentation within Yemen presents a clear and present danger.

The conflict in Yemen is not simply a civil war; it is a proxy war, reflecting a complex web of competing interests, ambitions, and strategic calculations. Saudi Arabia, leading a coalition in support of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, has found itself increasingly at odds with the UAE, which, while nominally part of the same coalition, has pursued its own objectives, primarily through its support for the STC. The STC, advocating for an independent South Yemen, controls significant territory and wields considerable influence, particularly in Aden, the interim capital. This tension between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, though often subtle, is becoming more pronounced, driven by differing visions for Yemen's future and broader regional strategic goals.

The Saudi demand for the STC withdrawal is significant because it directly challenges the UAE's influence in Yemen. While both nations share a common goal of countering Houthi power, their methods and long-term objectives diverge. The Saudis prioritize a unified Yemen under a government aligned with their interests, while the UAE seems more comfortable with a fragmented Yemen, where they can exert influence through proxies like the STC. This divergence is not unique to Yemen; similar dynamics are playing out in other regional hotspots, such as Sudan, where Saudi and Emirati backing for opposing factions has exacerbated the ongoing conflict. Such instances highlight the growing competition between the two Gulf powers for regional dominance and influence. For background on regional competition, consider reading this world affairs analysis.

The implications of this intra-coalition friction are far-reaching. A weakened anti-Houthi front could embolden the Houthis, potentially leading to further territorial gains and increased attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. This, in turn, would further disrupt global trade flows, already significantly impacted by the Houthi's ongoing attacks in support of Hamas. The potential for increased instability in Yemen also raises concerns about the resurgence of terrorist groups, such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which have historically exploited the power vacuum created by the conflict. The humanitarian crisis, already one of the worst in the world, could also worsen, with millions facing starvation and displacement.

Furthermore, the Saudi-UAE tension adds another layer of complexity to the diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the conflict. UN-led peace initiatives have repeatedly stalled, hampered by the intransigence of the warring parties and the competing interests of regional actors. The fracturing of the anti-Houthi coalition makes finding a durable political solution even more challenging. Any future peace agreement would need to address the STC's demands for greater autonomy or even independence, a scenario that Saudi Arabia is likely to resist. The success of any negotiations will also depend on the willingness of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reconcile their differences and adopt a unified approach. For an overview of the topic basics, this article can help.

The United States, which has historically supported the Saudi-led coalition, faces a difficult balancing act. While Washington shares concerns about Houthi aggression and Iranian influence in Yemen, it also seeks to de-escalate the conflict and promote a political solution. The US must navigate the complex relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, using its leverage to encourage cooperation and prevent further fragmentation within the anti-Houthi camp. If global trade continues to be affected, India's global position as an emerging economic power may also be affected.

The situation in Yemen remains fluid and unpredictable. The Saudi call for the STC withdrawal is a high-stakes gamble that could either pave the way for a more unified anti-Houthi front or trigger a new phase of conflict. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the war and the stability of the Red Sea region. The international community must remain engaged and redouble its efforts to promote a peaceful resolution to the conflict, one that addresses the legitimate concerns of all Yemeni stakeholders and safeguards the interests of regional and global security.

Editor’s note: This article was independently written by the Scoopliner Editorial Team using publicly available information.