Nifty 50, Sensex Today: Indian Stock Market Expectations for December 19

After four consecutive sessions of losses, the Sensex and Nifty 50 are predicted to begin trading higher on December 19, mirroring positive global market trends. Gains in Asian markets followed a rally by US stocks, which were boosted by cooling US inflation data that supported the possibility of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and eased concerns about the tech sector.

The Gift Nifty trends suggest a positive opening for the Indian benchmark index, with the Gift Nifty trading near 25,933, a gain of 60 points or 0.236% from the previous Nifty futures close.

On December 18, the Sensex and Nifty 50 experienced their fourth straight session of losses, closing mostly flat with a slight negative bias due to a lack of fresh market drivers. The Sensex fell 78 points (0.09%) to close at 84,481.81, while the Nifty 50 declined by 3 points (0.01%) to finish at 25,815.55.

The market breadth was mixed; the BSE Midcap index rose slightly by 0.05%, while the Smallcap index decreased by 0.28%. Analysts have observed that the domestic market is still searching for direction, lacking new positive catalysts to trigger a trend reversal. Investor caution remained due to concerns about the weakening rupee, ongoing foreign fund outflows, and uncertainties surrounding India-US trade deal negotiations.

What to Expect Today

**Sensex:** According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, the Sensex traded without a clear direction on Thursday, indicating traders are awaiting a decisive move. Chouhan believes the intraday market texture is non-directional, suggesting traders are waiting for a breakout. He identifies 84,800 as the immediate hurdle for buyers, suggesting a potential move towards 85,000-85,300 if this level is surpassed. Key support levels are at 84,300 and 84,100; a break below 84,100 could intensify selling pressure, potentially leading to a drop towards 83,800-83,700.

**Nifty 50:** Choice Equity Broking's Technical & Derivative Analyst, Amruta Shinde, noted subdued volatility, with the India VIX decreasing by 1.32% to 9.70. This reflects expectations of continued range-bound trading in the near term. Derivatives data indicates significant call writing at the 25,900 strike, while strong put open interest at 25,700 supports the view of a defined trading range. Sustained trading above 25,900 is crucial for renewed bullish momentum; failure to reclaim this level might extend the current consolidation.

Angel One's Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research, Osho Krishan, suggests the Nifty could soon experience a sharp move, as the 20-day and 50-day EMAs converge. Pivotal support lies around 25,750–25,700; a break below this range could disrupt the outlook and trigger fresh selling. Resistance is noted at the 20-DEMA at 25,930, followed by 26,000. Krishan advises a selective approach, focusing on thematic movers and avoiding aggressive bets.

Centrum Broking’s Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, Nilesh Jain, stated that markets remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive session, closing slightly below its 50-day moving average at 25,820, which is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by 26,000. Given the recent correction and the Nifty testing key support near 25,700, a pullback is possible if it sustains above the 21-day moving average at 26,000.

LKP Securities' Senior Technical Analyst, Rupak De, echoed a similar view, noting that the index’s failure to reclaim the hourly 200-DMA and the formation of lower tops maintains the bearish trend. With a weakening RSI, the 25,700 level is vulnerable to a breakdown, which could trigger the next phase of correction. Resistance is positioned around 25,900.

**Bank Nifty:** The Bank Nifty struggled for direction on Thursday, remaining within a tight consolidation range. Technical indicators suggest continued caution in the short term.

Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd.'s AVP – Technical and Derivative Research, Hrishikesh Yedve, indicated that the day’s pattern suggests potential upcoming volatility. Yedve noted the formation of an inverted hammer candle on the daily chart. Holding the inverted hammer low of 58,712 might provide short-term relief, but a break below this level could extend the weakness towards 58,450–58,000.

LKP Securities' Technical Analyst, Vatsal Bhuva, noted that the Bank Nifty continues to show signs of fatigue, remaining in a consolidation phase and facing selling pressure near its 10-day SMA. A close below the 58,700 support could accelerate the correction towards 58,350, where the 50-day SMA lies. Immediate resistance is near 59,150.