Indian Stock Market: Key Overnight Changes – Gift Nifty, Bitcoin, and Gold

Indian stock market indices, including the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to start the week on a negative note, mirroring the downturn in Asian markets which followed Friday's losses on Wall Street.

The Gift Nifty suggests a slow start for Indian equities after two days of gains. It was trading near 26,037, a decrease of 98 points, or 0.4%, compared to the previous Nifty futures close.

Market trends this week will likely be influenced by wholesale price index (WPI) inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors, and overall global market signals.

On Friday, December 12, the Indian stock market experienced its second consecutive session of gains, boosted by positive global sentiment after the US Federal Reserve hinted at a rate cut. The Sensex increased by 450 points (0.53%) to close at 85,267.66, while the Nifty 50 rose by 148 points (0.57%) to settle at 26,046.95.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, global risk appetite improved due to the U.S. Fed rate cut, enhancing liquidity optimism and supporting domestic equities, despite the rupee's record lows and ongoing foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows. He noted buying interest in broader indices after recent consolidation, with near-term focus on rupee levels, FII flows, and trade talks, along with global cues from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE) policy signals.

Key Market Influences:

**Asian Markets:** Most Asian markets began the week lower due to concerns about technology companies' earnings outlooks and their significant investments in artificial intelligence (AI). MSCI’s regional equity index declined by 0.4%, with South Korea, a major beneficiary of AI enthusiasm, falling by over 2%. US equity-index futures fluctuated after Wall Street closed in negative territory on Friday, dragged down by tech stocks. Hang Seng futures were down 1%, Japan’s Topix showed little change, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 decreased by 0.8%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures saw a slight increase of 0.1%.

**Gift Nifty:** As mentioned, Gift Nifty trends indicated a weak opening for Indian stocks, trading at 26,037, down 98 points or 0.4% from the previous close.

**Wall Street:** US stocks declined on Friday as investors shifted away from technology stocks toward value-oriented sectors. The S&P 500 fell 1.07% to 6,827.41, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.69% to 23,195.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 245.96 points (0.51%) to close at 48,458.05, after reaching a new intraday record earlier. The Russell 2000 also fell, declining 1.51% to 2,551.46, despite also hitting an all-time high during the day.

Broadcom's significant drop of over 11% put pressure on the broader market. Analysts attributed the selloff to concerns about potential margin compression, even though the company exceeded fourth-quarter estimates and provided a positive outlook for the current quarter, expecting its AI chip revenue to double.

**Currencies:** The dollar weakened at the start of the week, while the euro and sterling remained stable ahead of key central bank decisions. Investors are closely watching interest-rate outlooks across major economies as the year ends. Trading was limited in early Asian hours as investors awaited US inflation data and the nonfarm payrolls report. The yen remained steady after a Bank of Japan survey revealed improved business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers, reaching a four-year high. The yen slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155.94 per dollar.

**Bank of Japan:** Business sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers has risen to a four-year high, increasing expectations that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates this week. The BOJ’s quarterly Tankan survey showed the business sentiment index rising to 15 in December from 14 in September, aligning with economists' estimates. Sentiment among large non-manufacturers remained steady at 34, near its strongest level since the early 1990s. A positive figure suggests more firms view conditions as “favorable” rather than “unfavorable.”

**Gold Prices:** Gold prices stabilized after four days of gains, as mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials caused traders to lower expectations for further US monetary easing next year. Gold was trading near $4,305 an ounce, up 0.2% at $4,306.33 an ounce as of 7:47 a.m. in Singapore. Silver increased by 0.1% to $62.0140 after falling 2.5% on Friday. Platinum increased, while palladium decreased. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained largely unchanged.

**Oil Prices:** Oil prices rebounded from their lowest close in nearly two months, supported by renewed optimism in global financial markets. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose toward $58 a barrel after a 1.5% decline, while Brent crude settled above $61.

Despite this rebound, oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year due to concerns about a growing supply glut. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated its expectation of an unprecedented surplus, although slightly lower than last month’s estimate, and highlighted that global inventories have reached a four-year high.

**Bitcoin Prices:** Bitcoin fell below $89,000 on Sunday amid subdued weekend trading, as investors became cautious before a busy week of economic data and central bank announcements. It was down about 0.9% over the past 24 hours, slightly higher for the week, but still down approximately 7.6% over the past month. Ether traded near $3,104, declining on the day but up more than 2% over the past week, outperforming Bitcoin on a weekly basis.