How can Ukraine rebuild China ties scarred by Russia’s war?

Ukraine is grappling with how to revive its relationship with China, especially given Beijing's ties to Moscow and the ongoing conflict with Russia.

In the 1990s, China's burgeoning market created demand for Ukrainian goods like steel, iron ore, corn, and sunflower oil. Crucially, Ukraine also possessed a significant arsenal of Soviet-era weaponry, which it began to export.

Kyiv sold China aerospace components, helicopter and tank engines, and technology for manufacturing radars, naval gas turbines, and jet engines. These sales significantly boosted China's defense industry, even including the transfer of nuclear-capable Kh-55 cruise missiles.

A landmark deal was the 1998 sale of the Varyag aircraft carrier, an unfinished Soviet-era vessel located in Mykolaiv, Ukraine. While Beijing claimed it would use the 306-meter ship for training, it ultimately became China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning.

**China's Role in the Current Conflict**

The Russia-Ukraine war has shifted the dynamic, with China now benefiting significantly from the drone competition between the two countries. According to Andrey Pronin, a Ukrainian drone warfare expert, Chinese manufacturers are consistently the primary beneficiaries, as he stated while in his drone pilot school near Kyiv, surrounded by drones using Chinese components.

These drones, ranging from small biplane replicas to jet-powered mini-missiles, rely heavily on Chinese-made engines, flight controllers, batteries, thermal cameras, and navigation modules. These components are essential to Ukraine's drone industry, which produces millions of loitering munitions annually, and are a key factor in Ukraine's defense.

Pronin believes China could end the war quickly by halting the export of drone parts to both Ukraine and Russia.

**The Dependence on Chinese Components**

While Ukrainian drone manufacturers are working to produce key components locally, a report by the Snake Island military research group in Kyiv indicates that the industry remains heavily reliant on Chinese imports. Critical items include lithium salts, neodymium magnets, navigation chips, and thermal sensors, giving China considerable leverage.

**Rebuilding Ties After the War**

The question for Kyiv is not *if* it will rebuild ties with Beijing after the war, but *how*. In 2011, a strategic partnership agreement was signed between the two countries. Before launching its Belt and Road Initiative, China considered Ukraine a key point due to its Black Sea coast and access to the Danube River.

That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. after the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 and Russia's subsequent annexation of Crimea, Kyiv distanced itself from Beijing, viewing it as a backer of Russia.

Despite strained political ties, China remains a major economic partner for Ukraine. Analyst Vadym Denysenko noted that political ties are at "point zero," even though China is Ukraine's main economic partner. In 2020, trade between the two nations reached $15.4 billion, approximately one-seventh of Ukraine's total foreign trade. China continues to import Ukrainian grain, steel, vegetables, oil, and soybeans, which are vital to Ukraine's economy.

Denysenko suggests that Ukraine's geographic location remains attractive to the Belt and Road Initiative, making it essential to rebuild and expand ties with Beijing after the war.

**Future Cooperation**

Analyst Igar Tyshkevich suggests that Ukraine will need to upgrade its railways to European standards and expand its Danube port to improve China's access to the EU. He also proposes increasing exports of steel and food to China, allowing Chinese companies to open assembly plants in Ukraine, and collaborating on joint projects in aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and nuclear energy.

Tyshkevich emphasizes that Ukraine's participation as a transit country and key player would not benefit Russia.

Other analysts agree on the importance of Ukraine engaging with China's sphere of influence. Aleksey Kushch argues that failing to restore ties with China would be detrimental to Ukraine. He advocates for Ukraine to become part of the "Eurasian Steppe Corridor," connecting China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Southern Caucasus, and the Black Sea region, envisioning Ukraine as a hub for trade and logistics.