Half of Europeans see high risk of war with Russia: poll

Summary of some core findings in the major nine-country poll released on Thursday by French magazine Le Grand Continent:
Just over half of respondents (51%) felt the risk of war with Russia was elevated
More than 80% did not believe that Russia really wanted peace,
Almost 70% did not think their country was ready for war
Only 10% of respondents considered US President Donald Trump to be a friend to Europe
Still, a plurality called for a path of compromise, not confrontation, with Trump's US administration
Almost two-thirds voiced disapproval of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
Three-quarters favored staying in the EU
Most single-currency users were happy with the euro, but Polish respondents were determined to keep the zloty
Core information on the study and methodology
The final 2025 installment of Le Grand Continent's rolling "Barometer of European Public Opinion" was published on Thursday.
It consulted a total of 9,553 respondents, representative samples of just over 1,000 from nine different EU member states — Belgium, Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain.
The questions were put to the public in late November.
On Russia, Ukraine, and the risk of war
French respondents were most concerned about a potential war, with 86% seeing the chances of "an open war involving your country" as elevated or very elevated.
Overall, 63% perceived an elevated risk versus 31% seeing it as low or negligible. The same share, 63%, believed the risk of war in the coming years against "terrorist organizations" was elevated.
A slightly smaller share, 51% saw the likelihood of war with Russia as high amid Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. But in Poland, the only Russian neighbor polled, 77% perceived an elevated risk. Meanwhile, 46% of respondents said they saw a low or no chance of a war against Russia.
A majority, 61%, favored either maintaining or increasing support for Ukraine. Reducing or halting support was advocated by 31%.
Respondents were also asked about the risk of war with China, Iran, or the US, but fewer than 20% considered the likelihood to be high in all three cases.
On the question of whether major powers "really want peace," Russia scored worst with 81% saying no, and the EU scored best with 77% saying yes. China, at 59% yes, also scored slightly better than the US, at 57%.
More than two-thirds of respondents did not believe that their countries were ready for a major war. Respondents in Belgium (87%), Italy and Portugal (both 85%) were particularly concerned.
Of Germans polled, 69% felt the country was not prepared as the country scrambles to rethink decades of limited military activity in the aftermath of defeat in World War II. That figure was almost exactly in line with the average across the continent.
On Donald Trump and the US
Only 10% of those polled believed that US President Donald Trump was a friend to Europe.
Slightly more, 48%, perceived him as an enemy than the 40% who said he was neither friend nor enemy.
Only Polish respondents gave him a net favorable rating, with 24% saying friend, 19% saying enemy and 48% saying neither.
Belgians were the most displeased, at 7% friend and 62% enemy. Only 8% of Germans gave the thumbs up.
Despite this, participants did not advocate a confrontational path with the US. A plurality, 48%, called for compromise. One person in three called for explicit opposition to the Trump administration, while 19% advocated alignment.
But it's perhaps noteworthy that the 19% advocating alignment is higher than the 13% in March and 11% recorded in September, amid Trump's summer of tariff-based bluster.
Again, Poland was an outlier as the only country where more people (47%) called for alignment with the US than called for either opposition or compromise. Spain was the only country where a plurality (41%) advocated opposition.
On the European Union, the euro, and Brexit
The pollsters found a clear majority, 77% versus 19%, favoring remaining in the EU over leaving it in the nine member states.
Iberians were particularly clear on this issue, with 90% in Portugal and 89% in Spain answering stay.
But EU founder member France, the bloc's second-largest economy with one of the strongest right-wing populist parties on the continent, was most conflicted. Still, 61% favored staying and 27% advocated leaving.
Even Marine Le Pen, who once advocated a "Frexit" referendum, has reformulated her policy on the issue in recent years. She now claims she wants to stay in the EU but to "deeply" reform it.
Asked about Britain's EU exit, five years after its completion and almost a decade after the referendum that led to it, only 19% believed it had been beneficial for the UK. Sixty-three percent saw it as negative for the UK. Poles and Croatians offered above-average appraisals of Brexit's benefits.
Opinion was also fairly settled on the single European currency, the euro. Respondents from the seven longstanding users of the euro all voiced satisfaction with the currency over a national currency, most resoundingly in Spain (86%) and least resoundingly in France (59%).
But Croatia, which became the 20th country to use the euro in 2023, was deeply divided: 43% said they'd prefer the euro, 46% advocated their own currency, 9% believed it did not matter and 2% said they did not know.
Finally, Poles polled were clear that they wished to retain their national currency the zloty. Only 14% said they would prefer the euro, while 72% called for a currency of their own.
Edited by Sean Sinico