Iraq Turns to Oil to Secure Water Amidst Century-Worst Drought

The cradle of civilization, historically known as the "land between two rivers," Iraq is confronting an existential challenge. A drastic reduction in the flows of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, exacerbated by a severe drought and the impact of upstream dam construction, has created the most acute water scarcity the nation has seen in a century.

Once abundant waterways, the Tigris and Euphrates, both originating in Turkey, have become a source of contention. Iraq is now compelled to leverage its most valuable resource—oil—to ensure access to sufficient water supplies. The country, home to over 46 million people, is grappling with diminishing water resources because of several converging factors. These include the building of dams upstream in Turkey, Iran, and Syria; dilapidated water infrastructure resulting from decades of conflict, sanctions, and instability; and also government mismanagement.

Adding to these pressures is a climate change-induced drought, which is the worst Iraq has experienced in almost 100 years. Compounding the problem is increased demand, driven by expanding urban centers and a water-intensive agricultural sector that consumes over 80% of Iraq's total water resources.

While recent heavy rainfall and flash floods caused fatalities earlier this month, according to the Iraqi News Agency, the country's reservoirs still face significant deficits following years of insufficient precipitation, the water resources ministry stated.

According to Mukhtar Khamis, an environmental expert, approximately 60% of Iraq's water originates in Turkey. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. the nation is receiving less water than in previous years. He emphasized to CNN that upstream dams, particularly those constructed by Turkey, are severely restricting the water flow into Iraq, thereby intensifying the ongoing crisis.

Experts also point to years of corruption and mismanagement that have weakened Iraq’s negotiating stance in water-sharing discussions. Consequently, Iraq has entered into a contentious cooperative agreement with Turkey as its water situation deteriorates.

Under the multi-billion-dollar Water Cooperation Framework Agreement formalized in November, Turkish companies will develop infrastructure aimed at enhancing Iraq's water efficiency and storage capabilities. These projects will be funded using Iraqi oil revenues, essentially transforming the country’s crude oil exports into water security.

Torhan al-Mufti, an advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, explained that Iraq will sell a predetermined quantity of oil daily, with the revenue earmarked for a fund to compensate Turkish firms involved in water infrastructure projects. Reuters reported that initial projects will encompass water harvesting dams and land revitalization initiatives.

Ankara has presented the agreement as mutually beneficial for regional stability and economic collaboration. During the signing ceremony in Baghdad, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan affirmed Turkey's commitment to supporting Iraq's security, development, and safety.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein hailed the accord as vital for safeguarding water security, food production, and economic stability. He noted that Baghdad has long been vulnerable due to the absence of formal treaties governing water from the Tigris and Euphrates.

Al-Mufti told CNN that the agreement establishes a "clear and binding mechanism for water sustainability in the Tigris and Euphrates," obligating both parties to maintain continuous water flow based on Iraq's actual needs in agriculture, industry, and human consumption.

That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. the agreement has faced skepticism from some Iraqi politicians and water specialists. Shurook Alabayachi, a water policy expert, argued that water is a fundamental human right and should not be tied to oil revenues. She cautioned that the arrangement with Turkey deviates from internationally recognized principles of water diplomacy. Alabayachi instead advocates for a long-term, sovereign, professional, and internationally aligned water policy, including reforms to the country's agriculture sector.

Other experts are concerned the deal could undermine Iraq's long-term control over its own resources. Natasha Hall, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned that over-reliance on bilateral arrangements could jeopardize Iraq's sovereignty, potentially granting Turkey significant influence over its southern neighbor.

According to Gönül Tol, from the Middle East Institute’s Turkey Program, the agreement appears to favor Turkey, providing it with leverage over Iraq's most vital resource at a vulnerable time. Iraqi officials, however, insist that water management will remain under Iraqi control, as stated by al-Mufti.

Tol suggests that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may view the agreement as beneficial for strengthening his domestic position, advancing regional diplomacy, and ensuring energy security. She noted that Iraqi oil could serve as a substitute for Russian oil, a move encouraged by the US.

The Turkish government did not respond to CNN's request for comment.

For many Iraqis, the water crisis is a daily fight for survival. A recent report by the International Organization for Migration revealed that over 168,000 people have been displaced by climate and environmental pressures, including drought.

According to the Iraqi Federation of Agricultural Associations, thousands of farmers have been forced to seek alternative employment or abandon agriculture entirely as water shortages worsen.

Ahmed al-Jash’ami, a former farmer, recounted the heartbreak of watching his family's orchard wither due to dwindling water supplies. Hussam Anizan, another farmer, was compelled to sell his land after the water crisis made irrigation impossible. Both men attribute their plight to years of government mismanagement and corruption.

Despite the hardships, Anizan expressed cautious optimism about the oil-for-water agreement, hoping it might bring renewed hope to Iraqi farmers.