Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Consolidate Near Highs Ahead of NFP Risk

Gold and silver prices showed signs of stabilization in early European trading on Tuesday, taking a breather after a significant rally over the past few weeks. This pause appears to be driven by investors securing profits, rather than a fundamental shift in demand. Current futures positioning and ETF flows suggest a period of consolidation is underway, instead of widespread selling.

While demand for safe-haven assets has decreased slightly, as geopolitical risks appear to have subsided somewhat, the pressure on prices remains limited. Investors continue to see precious metals as a hedge against potential slowdowns in US economic growth and an increasingly dovish monetary policy, which is keeping selling interest selective.

Silver's price movements have mirrored those of gold, with industrial demand providing a degree of stability. Approximately 55% of global silver consumption is linked to industrial applications, according to the World Silver Survey. This ties silver's performance to manufacturing activity and investments in energy transition, even as speculative fervor cools.

**US Economic Data in Focus**

Market attention is now turning to a busy week for US economic data, highlighted by the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The forecast anticipates a significant drop to 51,000 new jobs, down from the previous 119,000. The unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly from 4.4% to 4.5%, while average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, a slight increase from the prior 0.2%.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely strengthen expectations of a weakening US labor market, potentially weakening the dollar and providing support for gold and silver through lower real yields. Retail sales are forecast to decline to 0.1% month-over-month, from 0.2%, and flash PMIs are also expected to show a slight decrease, indicating a moderation in economic activity.

**Underlying Support Factors Remain**

Beyond the immediate impact of economic data, fundamental factors continue to support precious metal prices. The World Gold Council reports that central bank gold purchases remain significantly above the five-year average. Silver markets also continue to face ongoing supply deficits, driven by limited growth in mining output and increasing demand from the solar and electronics industries.

Overall, the current price action in precious metals suggests a digestion of recent gains, rather than a signal of a trend reversal. The prevailing macroeconomic and policy dynamics continue to favor medium-term support for gold and silver.

**Short-Term Price Expectations**

Gold prices may consolidate within a range of $4,260 to $4,320, while silver is expected to trade sideways near $63.0 to $64.5. Pullbacks in price are viewed as corrections unless key support levels are breached.

**Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis**

Gold is currently trading near $4,284 on the 4-hour chart, having retreated from recent highs. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. the overall technical picture remains positive. Recent candlestick patterns, characterized by smaller bodies and upper wicks, suggest profit-taking rather than aggressive selling. The price is still holding above the upward trendline that originated in late November, which continues to define the medium-term uptrend.

Gold finds support above the 50-EMA, near $4,260, with the 100-EMA around $4,110 reinforcing the broader uptrend. A previous breakout area near $4,260–$4,240 is now acting as a key support zone. Maintaining this level would preserve the bullish outlook. Resistance is observed near $4,320, followed by $4,345, where previous highs are concentrated. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has decreased towards the mid-50s, reflecting a cooling of momentum without indicating a bearish shift.

**Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis**

Silver is trading near $63.00 on the 4-hour chart, after a pullback from recent highs, but the broader technical structure remains constructive. Recent candlestick formations show smaller bodies with overlapping ranges, indicating consolidation rather than a sharp reversal. The price is contained within a well-defined ascending channel that has guided the uptrend since late November.

Silver remains above the 50-EMA, near $61.50, which continues to act as dynamic support. The 100-EMA around $56.80 underpins the broader bullish structure. The dashed median trendline of the channel highlights steady upward momentum, even during the current price pause.

Immediate support lies near $62.00, followed by $61.47, where previous breakout demand emerged. Holding this zone would keep the trend intact. On the upside, resistance is seen near $64.55, followed by $66.20, aligning with previous swing highs and the upper channel boundary.