Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Eyes Potential Breakout Amid CPI and Payroll Data

Gold (XAUUSD) showed strong upward momentum last week, successfully defending the $4133.95 weekly pivot and approaching the record high of $4381.44. Although the price stalled at $4353.55, the week closed at $4299.38, marking a 2.40% gain and keeping the market within reach of new record highs.

Traders are bracing for volatility as the delayed November jobs report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are released. These reports are expected to trigger significant movements in yields, the dollar, and overall interest-rate expectations.

Rising Treasury Yields Present a Challenge

A key development last week was the surge in U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.186%, its highest level since September 2025, finishing the week up by 0.047.

Typically, rising yields create resistance for gold prices. This likely contributed to gold's pause just below last week's peak. Market participants noted that the Federal Reserve's divided vote regarding its third consecutive rate cut has introduced uncertainty about the pace of easing in 2026. Consequently, the market responded by pushing yields higher.

With the 10-year yield near multi-month highs, any further increases this week could temporarily hinder gold's attempts to move higher.

Dollar Weakness Offsets Yield Pressure

Despite rising yields, the U.S. dollar trended downward, reaching multi-month lows and providing consistent support for gold. This divergence – stronger yields coupled with a weaker dollar – created a unique situation. Gold faced headwinds from the bond market but received support from dollar weakness.