'Avatar: Fire and Ash' Box Office Projections for Opening Weekend

Can “Avatar: Fire and Ash” replicate the box office success of its predecessors? With James Cameron's prior films, “Avatar” (2009) and “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022), having each surpassed $2 billion in global earnings, expectations are high for this third installment.

Industry projections estimate that Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” will take the top spot, potentially earning between $90 million and $105 million across 3,800 theaters domestically. Internationally, the film is expected to generate $250 million to $275 million in its debut, leading to a worldwide opening of $340 million to $365 million. Imax and 3D screens are predicted to be particularly popular.

While “Avatar” films aren't necessarily known for record-breaking opening weekends, they have demonstrated remarkable staying power. The original “Avatar” opened with $77 million domestically and remained at No. 1 for seven weeks, eventually reaching $760 million in North America and $2.92 billion globally. The sequel, despite its three-hour and 12-minute runtime, debuted with $134 million domestically and went on to earn $688 million in North America and $2.3 billion worldwide.

If “Fire and Ash” follows a similar trajectory, and if audiences aren’t put off by the movie's three hour and 17-minute length, the “Avatar” franchise could become the first to have three films exceeding $2 billion in revenue. Currently, Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe has two films that have reached this milestone: “Avengers: Endgame” (2019) and “Avengers: Infinity War” (2018). James Cameron is already the only director with three $2 billion-plus movies, including “Titanic.” While “Fire and Ash” doesn't necessarily need to cross $2 billion to be considered a success, Cameron's films typically have enormous budgets that require massive global ticket sales to break even.

“Avatar” centers on Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Neytiri (Zoe Saldaña) and their clan on Pandora. “Fire and Ash” continues the story after “The Way of Water,” depicting the conflict between the Na’vi and the RDA. Following the death of Jake Sully’s son Neteyam, his family seeks refuge with the Metkayina, an aquatic clan, and continues their fight against the RDA and a new fiery enemy. According to Variety’s Owen Gleiberman, the film is an improvement over the second, calling it “better than the second film — bolder and tighter — and still has its share of amazements. But it no longer feels visually unprecedented.”

Despite the release of “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” other studios are releasing competing films. Paramount's “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants,” Lionsgate's “The Housemaid,” and Angel Studios' animated musical drama “David” are all hoping to attract audiences looking for something different. These films are expected to perform behind “Fire and Ash.” Christmas releases tend to have long runs in theaters, extending into January and beyond.

“The Housemaid” is projected to debut with $20 million to $25 million from 3,000 locations, though Lionsgate is aiming for more conservative estimates in the mid-teens. The studio hopes the $35 million-budgeted film will resonate with female audiences, similar to “A Simple Favor,” “Anyone but You,” or “It Ends With Us.” Directed by Paul Feig (“Bridesmaids”) and based on Freida McFadden’s novel, the R-rated thriller stars Sydney Sweeney as a young woman with a troubled past who becomes a live-in maid for a wealthy family with dark secrets. The cast includes Amanda Seyfried, Brandon Sklenar, Michele Morrone, and Elizabeth Perkins. Gleiberman praised “The Housemaid” for its campy nature, noting that it “goes right over-the-top, but it does so in a way that’s unusually clever and knowing.”

“David,” a family-friendly retelling of the David and Goliath story and a follow-up to the “Young David” TV series, could surprise with $20 million to $25 million from 3,100 screens. Angel Studios, known for the success of “Sound of Freedom” in 2023, has become a major player in faith-based entertainment. Earlier this year, they released “King of Kings,” an animated biblical adventure that opened with $19 million and ultimately earned $60 million domestically and $79 million worldwide.

“The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” is expected to come in fourth place, with projections of $15 million to $20 million from 3,500 locations. The PG-rated film had a production budget of $64 million. Based on the popular Nickelodeon show, the film follows SpongeBob as he leaves Bikini Bottom to find the Flying Dutchman.

This marks the first “SpongeBob” movie in a decade, since 2015’s “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water,” which opened with $55 million and eventually grossed $162 million domestically and $325 million worldwide. This was a significant increase from the original 2004 film, “The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie,” which launched with $32 million and finished with $85 million in North America and $141 million worldwide. “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run” was released directly on streaming in 2020 due to the pandemic.

These films, along with A24’s “Marty Supreme,” Focus Features’ “Song Sung Blue,” and Sony’s “Anaconda,” are all set to be released around Christmas. The current domestic ticket sales are $8.1 billion, which is slightly ahead of last year (0.5%) but still significantly behind 2019 (22.7%), according to Comscore. The holiday releases face pressure to boost the year's revenues closer to the projected $9 billion mark. The fate of the box office rests on the shoulders of James Cameron and the success of “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”