'Fire and Ash' Projected to Ignite $340M-$380M Global Box Office Debut

20th Century Studios is poised to conclude the box office year with James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire and Ash.' Industry estimates project a worldwide opening of $340 million to $380 million for the film. While impressive, this figure trails the $444 million global debut of 'Avatar: The Way of Water' in 2022, adjusted for comparable market conditions.

At its current projected level, 'Fire and Ash' is expected to secure the second-highest opening of 2025 for an MPA-rated film. Disney's 'Zootopia 2,' which launched with $560.3 million, holds the top spot, with 'Fire and Ash' surpassing the studio’s 'Lilo & Stitch' which opened to $341 million.

The international launch is estimated to bring in between $250 million and $275 million. For comparison, 'Avatar: The Way of Water' opened to $310 million in the same markets, accounting for current exchange rates.

Several factors contribute to the difference between the openings of 'Fire and Ash' and 'Way of Water.' 'Way of Water' benefitted from nine days of release before Christmas, while 'Fire and Ash' has only five. This shorter window may encourage audiences to wait for optimal showtimes and seating for the 3-hour, 17-minute film. The 13-year gap between the original 'Avatar' and its sequel also played a role in the previous film's larger opening.

Domestically, pre-sale tickets for 'Fire and Ash' are tracking approximately 30% lower than those of 'Avatar: Way of Water,' which debuted at $134.1 million, compared to the original 'Avatar's' $77 million. As such, a domestic opening of $90 million or more for 'Fire and Ash' should not come as a surprise. Additionally, 'Fire and Ash' faces increased competition from other films in North America, including Angel Studios' animated faith-based movie 'David' ($20M-$25M), Lionsgate's 'The Housemaid' ($20M+), and Paramount's 'SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants' ($15M-$20M).

As with previous 'Avatar' films, the long-term performance, rather than the opening weekend, is the key metric. The goal for these films is a 6x-8x multiple by year's end. 'Way of Water' was released during the Christmas season following the record-breaking success of 'Spider-Man: No Way Home,' which had the second-highest domestic opening of all time at $260 million and the third-highest global opening at $600.5 million. Initial tracking for 'Way of Water' mistakenly compared it to a Marvel film, leading to inflated forecasts of over $180 million in the U.S. Ultimately, the sequel performed exceptionally well, earning $688.5 million domestically (a 5.1x multiple) and $2.34 billion worldwide, making it the third-highest-grossing film ever.

In the U.S., 'Fire and Ash' is launching in 3,800 theaters, including 430 Imax 3D auditoriums, 1,050 premium large format screens (approximately 80% in 3D, including 175 Dolby screens), 380 D-Box/4D motion auditoriums, and 120 ScreenX locations. Previews begin at 2 PM. Currently, 'Fire and Ash' holds a 71% critical score on Rotten Tomatoes, making it the lowest-rated film in the trilogy, compared to 'Avatar' (81%) and 'Avatar: Way of Water' (76%).

The international rollout of 'Fire and Ash' commences today, encompassing major markets such as France, Germany, Italy, and Korea. Australia, Brazil, and Mexico, among others, will follow on Thursday. Friday will see releases in China, the UK, Japan, Spain, India, and additional territories. By the weekend's end, the film will be playing in every international box office market, with the exception of Hong Kong, where it will premiere on January 8.

Many international countries have 17 days (or more) of holiday breaks, so a slow burn is expected for the film.

Historically, China, Germany, France, Korea, the UK, Mexico, and India have been among the top-performing international markets for 'Avatar' films, and are expected to be again.

In China, where the previous two 'Avatar' movies were highly successful, 'Fire and Ash' is leading in pre-sales through Sunday and into the following week. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. these pre-sales are significantly lower than those of 'Way of Water,' currently totaling approximately 53.5 million RMB ($7.6 million). Limited sneak previews in the Cinity format begin on Wednesday, with PLF previews starting on Thursday, followed by a full release on Friday.

James Cameron enjoys considerable popularity in China, where the original 'Avatar' grossed over $200 million in 2010, before the market's expansion and rapid growth in the number of screens. Across its three releases, 'Avatar' has grossed $262 million locally. 'Avatar: The Way of Water' ultimately earned $247 million (at historical rates) after its release in 2022, coinciding with the end of China's zero-COVID policy and public concerns about venturing out. The film opened to $56.4 million in China and maintained a strong multiple.

To promote 'Fire and Ash' globally, Cameron and the cast attended a premiere in Sanya, China, in early December. Other star-studded premieres were held in Paris, Milan, Madrid, Tokyo, London, Wellington, Mexico City, and Los Angeles.

Angel Studios' 'David,' playing in 3,100 theaters, has already secured $14 million in pre-sales and is projected to earn between $20 million and $25 million in its opening weekend, surpassing Paramount's fourth 'SpongeBob' film. While Angel Studios subscriptions and fan ticket sales are driving this figure, distribution sources anticipate that 'SpongeBob' will ultimately have greater staying power throughout the holiday season, which typically concludes with MLK weekend in mid-January. Previews for 'David,' directed by Phil Cunningham and Brent Dawes, begin at 12 PM on Thursday. The film depicts David's journey from shepherd to king, culminating in his battle with Goliath.

Lionsgate's 'Housemaid,' directed by Paul Feig and starring Amanda Seyfried, Sydney Sweeney, and Brandon Sklenar, could also attract a significant female audience. The thriller is expected to open to $20 million or more in 3,000 theaters. Even if it falls slightly short of this mark, there are hopes that the film, based on the first novel in the Freida McFadden trilogy, will demonstrate strong legs, similar to Sweeney's 2023 rom-com 'Anyone But You,' which opened to $6 million before Christmas and achieved an impressive 14.7x multiple, ultimately grossing $88.3 million domestically. 'Housemaid' currently holds a 78% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes based on 55 reviews. The film, produced for a net mid-$30 million, centers on a wealthy woman (Seyfried) married to a tech entrepreneur (Sklenar) who hires a young woman as her live-in housemaid. Previews begin at 2 PM on Thursday.