Do recent attacks 'inspired' by ISIS mean the group is resurging? : NPR

Just over a decade ago, the Islamic State (ISIS) controlled significant territory in Iraq and Syria. The group shocked the world with attacks and spread gruesome videos of beheadings on social media.

Though the U.S. declared ISIS defeated, recent attacks linked to the group by officials suggest it remains a threat, according to experts.

At its peak, the Wilson Center estimated ISIS had over 40,000 foreign fighters from 120 countries. That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. by 2019, U.S.-led operations dismantled its leadership, reclaimed its territory, and crippled its ability to launch attacks, leading to the collapse of the ISIS "caliphate" that had ruled millions in Iraq and Syria – an area about the size of Kentucky.

Following the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, President Trump announced that his caliphate had been "obliterated, 100 percent." That said, the reality is a bit more complicated. attacks believed to be inspired by ISIS are raising concerns.

Australia's federal police commissioner, Krissy Barrett, attributed a mass shooting at a Hanukkah celebration in Sydney's Bondi Beach to ISIS. The father and son gunmen had traveled to Davao, in the Philippines, before returning to Sydney in late November, according to the Philippines Bureau of Immigration. The island of Mindanao has long been a center for Islamist extremist groups.

Trump also blamed ISIS for an attack near Palmyra, Syria, that killed three Americans, including two U.S. service members, though the group hasn't claimed responsibility. Additionally, the FBI stated that the perpetrator of a vehicle attack in New Orleans that injured 14 people was inspired by ISIS.

Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, notes that despite the territorial losses six years ago, ISIS never truly disappeared. He says there's been "more dispersion of leadership" since the caliphate's collapse. Zelin adds that ISIS never gives up and will use any means to achieve its goals as long as they have the will to fight.

Last year, the Pentagon estimated there were still 2,500 ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq. As recently as last month, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported working with the Syrian government to locate and destroy 15 ISIS weapons caches. CENTCOM stated that while the terrorist group's conventional threat has decreased since its territorial defeat in 2019 and its fighters are dispersed.

The Congressional Research Service defines the Islamic State's ideology as a uniquely hardline version of violent jihadist-Salafism, where the group and its supporters are willing to use violence in an armed struggle to establish what they view as an ideal Islamic society.

According to Daniel Byman, the director of the Warfare Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Islamic State has always relied on disseminating "enormous amounts of propaganda" via social media as a key recruitment strategy, and this continues even after the fall of the caliphate. He notes that while this strategy is effective, it depends on a receptive audience to be inspired to carry out attacks. Anger related to the war in Gaza, which the United Nations says has killed over 70,000 Palestinians, has fueled the propaganda. The conflict began after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel that killed about 1,200 people, according to Israel.

Sidney Jones, an adjunct professor at New York University and consultant to the U.N. Office of Counter-Terrorism, says that militant groups linked to the Islamic State have struggled to reestablish themselves in the Philippines. This makes the potential link between the Bondi Beach attackers and ISIS-affiliated groups in Mindanao surprising. Jones stated that there hasn't been a serious ISIS attack in the region for a long time.

In 2017, U.S.-backed Philippine forces besieged the city of Marawi to expel militant groups affiliated with ISIS. Jones says the Philippine government has been actively pursuing them since then, with the army involved in systematic operations against ISIS remnants across Mindanao.

Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes it's unlikely the Bondi Beach attackers found a fully operational terrorist training camp in the Philippines. He says these groups consist of small cells hiding in the shadows.

Byman notes that while the recent attacks inspired by ISIS are tragic, the overall number of attacks is declining. This includes would-be attacks, such as the arrest of a Michigan man earlier this year who allegedly planned to attack a military base on behalf of ISIS.

Byman says that the FBI and other agencies are making arrests, but both actual plots and attacks are decreasing over time.