CPI print, India-Russia deals to US Fed meet: Top five triggers for Indian stock market this week

Stock market next week: The Indian stock market ended on a higher note on Friday, December 5, following the Reserve Bank of India's decision to cut repo rates by 24 bps, along with its plan to inject ₹1.45 lakh crore into the system through bond purchases and dollar–rupee swaps.
Recording gains for the second straight session, the Sensex rose 447 points (0.52%) to finish at 85,712.37, while the Nifty 50 advanced 153 points (0.59%) to close at 26,186.45. The BSE Midcap index inched up 0.21%, whereas the Smallcap index slipped 0.67%.
“Markets ended the week on a flat note as early weakness from profit-booking, persistent FII outflows, and a record-low rupee offset the support from strong macro data and the RBI’s 25 bps repo rate cut to 5.25%. A late rebound on the final trading day helped the Nifty pare losses and close at 26,186, while the Sensex held steady at 85,712,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.
On the market outlook next week, Mishra said, “Investors should maintain a balanced approach with a preference for large caps and sectors poised to benefit from the rate cut—particularly financials, autos, and domestic cyclicals. Export-oriented and IT names may continue to find support from the weaker rupee. Caution is advisable in rupee-sensitive and import-heavy pockets until currency volatility stabilises. Traders can continue with a “buy on dips” around the key supports, with a strategy focused on stock-specific opportunities while keeping position sizes moderate ahead of the key FOMC meeting.”
Top triggers for the Indian stock market
India's CPI print
In the coming week, markets will closely track India’s CPI print on December 12, following October’s record-low inflation reading of 0.25%, along with data on loan growth, deposit growth, and forex reserves.
India-Russia deals
During Putin’s visit, India and Russia finalised multiple new deals. The two nations signed 16 agreements covering defence, trade, the economy, healthcare, education, culture, and media.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow is prepared to supply India with a steady and reliable flow of fuel.
“We are ready to continue uninterrupted shipments of fuel for the fast-growing Indian economy,” Putin told Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his two-day visit to the country.
His statement comes as India is simultaneously negotiating a trade agreement with the United States, which has urged India to scale back its oil purchases from Russia.
US Federal Meeting
The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on December 9–10 to decide whether to implement another rate cut—following the 0.25 percentage point reduction in October—or keep rates unchanged.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders currently see an 86.2% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut in December.
“Globally, the spotlight will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, which could drive risk sentiment across emerging markets already navigating currency pressures,” Mishra added.
India-US trade deal
According to reports, a delegation from the Trump administration, headed by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Rick Switzer, is scheduled to visit India next week to continue talks on a trade deal.
Both countries have been working toward a multi-phase trade arrangement, with the initial stage focused on rolling back the retaliatory tariffs Trump placed on Indian goods. The 50% duty includes penalties the U.S. president imposed in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil.
“We are optimistic that we will find a solution this calendar year. What needs to come out first is a framework trade deal that can address the reciprocal tariffs,” Indian Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said at an industry event last week.
FII Activity
Foreign investors began December on a strongly negative footing, selling over $1 billion worth of shares in India’s secondary markets within the first four trading days. This follows more than $1.3 billion in withdrawals during November, extending a selling trend driven by global uncertainty and worries over high domestic valuations.
"December has begun with sustained selling by FIIs on all days of the first week. In the first week ending on 5th December, FIIs have sold equity for ₹10401 crores in the cash market. This sales figure has been completely eclipsed by the sustained strong buying by DIIs, who bought equity for ₹19783 crores during this period. The fundamental reasons behind the FII selling and DII buying are different. FIIs are selling primarily due to the sharp depreciation of the rupee by around 5% this year.
It is normal for FIIs to sell and take the money out during times of currency depreciation. On the other hand, DIIs have been investing systematically assisted by continuous fund flows, and recently they have been buoyed up by the robust GDP growth numbers and expectations of an uptick in corporate earnings, going forward," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Gold prices
Gold prices climbed on Friday as growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next week boosted market sentiment, while silver surged to an all-time high.
Spot gold rose 1% to $4,212.16 per ounce at 1:36 p.m. ET (1836 GMT), though it was still headed for a 0.4% weekly decline. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for February delivery closed flat at $4,243 per ounce.
Back home, gold prices jumped by ₹1,300 to ₹1,32,900 per 10 grams in the national capital on Friday amid firm global trends, according to the All India Sarafa Association.
“Gold traded positive with gains of ₹525 at ₹1,30,650 as Comex gold held firm above the crucial $4,200 support and inched higher toward $4,224. With the US Core PCE Price Index lined up later today, participants appear to be maintaining their bullish positions on expectations of a December 10 rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Gold continues to hold strong support at $4,180, while resistance is placed near $4,255. In MCX, support is seen near 128000rs and resistance near 131500rs,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
Technical Outlook
On the Nifty outlook, Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking said that Nifty has rebounded from the crucial support zone near the 20-DEMA, which aligns with the rising channel’s trendline around the 25,900–26,000 region.
“This validates the ongoing positive structure, and we expect the uptrend to extend towards 26,300–26,500 in the near term,” said Mishra.
On the Bank Nifty outlook, he added, “The index saw volatile swings during the week but recovered after retesting the 20-DEMA support near 59,000, which remains the key level to watch, followed by 58,200. On the upside, the index is likely to move gradually towards the trendline hurdle at 60,500, a breakout above which could open room for a move towards the 61,800 zone.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.