Conflicts to Watch in 2026

Several ongoing crises from 2025 remain high on the list of potential conflicts in 2026, including Gaza, Ukraine, the Iran-Israel situation, and the possibility of a cyberattack targeting the United States. North Korea has risen to a Tier I concern, while Haiti, Lebanon, Mexico, and the South China Sea have dropped to Tier II. The potential for increased political violence and unrest within the United States, which was the top concern in the 2024 survey, is once again considered a high-likelihood, high-impact risk after being rated as moderately likely in the 2025 survey.

The risk of conflict among major global powers remains a persistent threat. In 2026, a crisis involving Taiwan and potential clashes between Russia and NATO are seen as having an even chance of occurring. These scenarios are rated as high impact due to the potential for direct U.S. military involvement with China or Russia. While a conflict in the South China Sea carries similar risks, it is considered less likely to occur in 2026.

Several changes are noteworthy:

• Six contingencies from the 2025 survey are absent from the 2026 report. For the first time, widespread conflict in Afghanistan is not included, although the risk of cross-border clashes with Pakistan remains. A promising disarmament process involving the primary Kurdish armed group in Turkey led to the removal of that contingency. Civil conflicts in Ethiopia and Libya, along with potential Russian provocations against non-NATO Eastern European countries, were also excluded. The risk of armed confrontation in the Western Balkans is now listed as an "Other Noted Concern."
• Six new contingencies have been added to the 2026 survey. The most significant new addition is the possibility of direct U.S. military action against Venezuela, considered a high-likelihood, high-impact risk. Increased Russian provocations against NATO countries in 2025 have raised concerns that these tensions could escalate into armed conflict, warranting inclusion in the 2026 survey. Following a year of political upheaval and sectarian violence, a renewed civil war in Syria has also been added. South Sudan, previously an "Other Noted Concern" in 2025, returns to the survey due to continued election delays and factional violence. Rising violence and unrest in Ecuador, as well as growing insurgent activity and political instability in Cameroon, are also new additions.
• Eight contingencies from the 2025 survey have been significantly revised for 2026. The Ukraine war contingency now focuses on the risk of intensified attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other's infrastructure and cities. Concerns following the June 2025 twelve-day war between Iran and Israel have led to a revised contingency regarding renewed fighting between those nations. The potential for direct U.S. strikes against criminal groups in Mexico reflects the Trump administration's increased focus on the illicit drug trade. The Sudan contingency now emphasizes the growing risk of mass atrocities, while the Somalia contingency addresses the potential U.S. withdrawal of security assistance and a subsequent rise in terrorism. The risk of war between Ethiopia and its neighbors is now more narrowly focused on conflict with Eritrea and Eritrean-backed groups in the border region. The Yemen contingency centers on the country's deepening internal crisis, and the Lebanon contingency focuses on the government's struggle to disarm Hezbollah.