Big jump in gold, silver rates today. USD vs INR, India-US trade deal, bond yield in focus

Gold and silver prices experienced a significant surge today, fueled by a weakening US dollar (USD) against the Indian Rupee (INR) and declining US bond yields. This spurred strong buying activity in precious metals across both Indian and global markets.

On the MCX, gold prices saw a substantial intraday increase of ₹1,874 per 10 grams, reaching a high of ₹1,35,496 per 10 grams. Similarly, silver rates on the MCX climbed by ₹6,195 during the day, hitting a peak of ₹1,99,046 per kg.

Internationally, COMEX gold prices jumped by over $56 per ounce on Monday, reaching an intraday high of $4,384 per ounce. Silver prices in the global market also rose sharply, gaining approximately $2 per ounce to reach a high of $64.018 per ounce in early trading.

Market analysts attribute the upward trend in gold and silver prices to a combination of domestic and international factors. A key domestic factor is the Indian Rupee's continued slide to a new low of 90.70 against the US dollar. This occurred even as the US Dollar Index dipped below 98. The weakness in both currencies has stimulated buying interest in gold and silver. The decline in US Treasury bond yields further bolstered the rally.

**USD vs INR in Focus**

Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, highlighted the strong buying in gold and silver, attributing it to the sharp selling observed in both the USD and INR. He noted the US Dollar Index's fall below 98 and the Indian Rupee's record low against the USD as primary drivers. Gupta also pointed to the support provided by falling US Treasury bond yields, which have decreased from 4% to 3.5% recently, prompting a shift of funds from forex and bond markets into precious metals.

**Delay in India-US Trade Deal**

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, commented on the rupee's weakening by 28 paise to 90.70, citing delays in the India-US trade deal and continuous selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) as contributing factors. He added that elevated gold and silver prices have increased the import bill, further weakening the rupee. Trivedi anticipates the currency to trade within a range of 90.00 to 91.25 in the near future.

BofA analysts suggest that the Indian rupee's performance remains closely tied to portfolio flows, influenced in part by tariffs imposed by the US. They emphasized that the finalization of the India-US trade agreement, which is expected to reduce tariffs, would be crucial in reducing uncertainty for equity investors. A stronger growth momentum would also support corporate earnings and ease concerns about equity valuations.

**Gold Rates Today: Key Levels**

Trivedi noted that international spot gold prices surged towards $4,350, triggering a strong rally in the domestic market. The MCX gold rate today reflected this global strength, with a sharp gain of around ₹1,700, reaching a fresh lifetime high of nearly ₹1,35,250. Safe-haven demand and expectations surrounding upcoming US economic data fueled the move. Attention is now focused on US macroeconomic cues, including Non-Farm Payrolls and the Core PCE Price Index, which are expected to maintain elevated volatility. Gold prices are projected to trade in a higher range between ₹1,33,000 and ₹1,36,500.

Gupta identified key support and resistance levels for gold and silver. He stated that gold has support at $4,280 per ounce and faces resistance at $4,400 per ounce in the international market. Silver has immediate support at $60 per ounce and a crucial support level at $58 per ounce, with resistance at $64 per ounce. A break above this resistance could lead to silver prices reaching $67 per ounce soon. For MCX silver rates, Gupta noted immediate support at ₹1,93,000 and strong support at ₹1,90,000 per kg. Resistance is seen at ₹2,00,000 per kg, and a break above this level could push silver prices to ₹2,03,000 in the near term.

*Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.*